Where does the Cardinality Estimate go wrong?

create table [dbo].[Person] (
    [PersonID] int not null,
    [LocationID] int not null,
    [Name] varchar(50),
    [DateOfBirth] date,
    constraint [PK_Person] primary key ([LocationID], [PersonID])
)
 
create table [dbo].[Case] (
    [CaseID] int not null,
    [LocationID] int not null,
    [PersonID] int,
    [CaseDate] datetime,
    constraint [PK_Case] primary key ([LocationID], [CaseID])
);
 
create table [dbo].[Licence] (
    [LicenceID] int not null,
    [LocationID] int not null,
    [PersonID] int,
    [LicenceNo] varchar(50),
    constraint [PK_Licence] primary key ([LocationID], [LicenceID])
);
 
create table [dbo].[Driver1] (
    [LocationID] int not null,
    [CaseID] int not null
);
 
create table [dbo].[Driver2] (
    [LocationID] int not null,
    [CaseID] int not null,
    constraint [PK_Driver2] primary key ([LocationID], [CaseID])
);

set nocount on;
 
declare
    @location_id int = 1,
    @case_id int,
    @person_id int,
    @licence_id int,
    @chance float;
 
 
begin transaction;
 
while @location_id < 100
begin
    select
        @case_id = 1,
        @person_id = 1,
        @licence_id = 1;
 
    while @person_id < 5000
    begin
 
        insert into dbo.Person (LocationID, PersonID, DateOfBirth, Name)
        values (@location_id, @person_id, dateadd(day, @person_id, '20000101'), 'Name ' + cast(@person_id as varchar));
 
        set @chance = 0.5;
 
        while rand() < @chance
        begin
            insert into dbo.[Case] (LocationID, CaseID, PersonID, CaseDate)
            values (@location_id, @case_id, @person_id, dateadd(day, @case_id, '20150101'));
            set @case_id += 1;  
            set @chance /= 10;
            if rand() < 0.02
            begin
                insert into dbo.Driver1 (LocationID, CaseID) values (@location_id, @case_id);
                insert into dbo.Driver2 (LocationID, CaseID) values (@location_id, @case_id);
            end;
        end;
 
        set @chance = 0.8;
 
        while rand() < @chance
        begin
            insert into dbo.[Licence] (LocationID, LicenceID, PersonID, LicenceNo)
            values (@location_id, @licence_id, @person_id, 'Licence ' + cast(@licence_id as varchar));
            set @licence_id += 1;
            set @chance /= 50;
        end;
 
        set @person_id += 1;
    end;
    set @location_id += 1;
end;
 
commit transaction;
create index IX_LocationID_PersonID on dbo.Licence(LocationID, PersonID);
 
update statistics dbo.[Case] with fullscan;
update statistics dbo.[Licence] with fullscan;
update statistics dbo.[Person] with fullscan;
update statistics dbo.[Driver1] with fullscan;
update statistics dbo.[Driver2] with fullscan;